Where would each EPL club be without its top scorer?



Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini said the date United really won the Premier League title was 17 August 2012 – the day they signed Robin van Persie from Arsenal.

“We wanted Van Persie because we knew he could be an important player,” Mancini admitted . “He has changed their situation, he is the difference between us.”

United clinched the title with a 3-0 win against Aston Villa on 22 April, with Van Persie scoring a hat-trick. But how important has Van Persie really been to United’s season? And what impact have other clubs’ leading scorers had on their success, or lack of it?

BBC Radio 4’s More or Less programme has created an alternative Premier League table, showing how many points clubs would have earned without the goals of their leading marksmen.

Credit: BBC Sport

Credit: BBC

[The table] shows that Manchester United would still be top of the league without Van Persie’s goals, but by a much smaller margin than they currently enjoy. The Dutchman has scored 30% (24) of Manchester United’s goals and those goals have earned his team 23% (19) of their overall points tally – more than any other player.

Second place in the table goes to Arsenal, who move above Manchester City because they are less reliant on their top goal scorer. Santi Cazorla has scored 12 goals this season but there were only two matches where his goals made a difference to the result.

Manchester City and Chelsea are one point behind Arsenal in joint third position.

Tottenham would be a place and 15 points worse off without the services of Gareth Bale, completely ruling them out of the running for a Champions League spot.

At the opposite end of the table, Fulham would be 15th – a drop of four places and 10 points – without Dimitar Berbatov. And Aston Villa would be 13 points off and virtually condemned to relegation without the goals of their top scorer, Christian Benteke.

[The other table] answers questions about so called “one-man” teams, a label that has been given to Tottenham this season.

Bale’s 18 goals have accounted for 25% of their total points, Spurs have not won a game in which he has not scored since 1 January, and in the alternative table they would be 11 points off a Champions League spot without his goals.

This is backed up by WhoScored.com – the world’s largest online football statistics database – who use more than 300 different measurements to create their ratings. Bale currently sits top of their player rankings.

But WhoScored.com editor Alistair Tweedale thinks another player is arguably more important to Spurs’ cause.

“Tottenham have won 67% of their games with Moussa Dembele playing (24 starts and two as a substitute), compared to 29% without him (eight games. Those are both respectively bigger and smaller values than with and without Bale. So there’s an argument that Dembele is as important if not more important than Bale to Tottenham.”

Liverpool’s Luis Suarez has been in the news for all the wrong reasons in the last week and a Football Association ban means he won’t be adding to his 23 league goals this campaign. He is widely considered to be indispensable to his club.

But the stats paint a slightly different picture. Despite scoring 38% of Liverpool’s goals, they have only contributed 18% of Liverpool’s total points. In the alternative table, Liverpool would be in exactly the same position in the league as they are now without Suarez’s goals – seventh.

It is equally surprising that Swansea’s Michu has not been as important as his goals tally might suggest. The £2m bargain signing from Rayo Vallecano has chalked up an impressive 17 league goals, accounting for 40% of Swansea’s goals, but they have only been directly responsible for 17% of Swansea’s points.

One man is clearly the Premier League’s statistically most impressive performer in the alternative table. Step forward Aston Villa’s Benteke.

The Belgian striker has scored 15 goals (42% of Villa’s total), leading to 13 points (38% of their total). Without his input, Villa would be five points away from 17th spot and Premier League safety.

Tweedale agrees: “He’d be the most valuable player for me, just because of the huge financial implications of getting relegated. Villa will probably be in the Premier League next season in no small part due to Benteke. Without him I don’t think they would be.”

BBC Sport carries the complete article along with a table of top scorers showing % of goals scored for their teams as well as the methodology for the alternative league table.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: